How we validate a signal before it ships.
SENTINEL is a public crypto-perp research desk. Most ideas don’t survive contact with the data — and we show that work. This page is the validation pipeline, the route simulations, and what’s currently soaking.
Live figures load on each visit from the same endpoint our admin dashboard uses. Everything labeled “research” or “reconstructed” is exactly that — not a live track record.
Every tier runs the same gauntlet: parity backtest, shadow collection, forward receipts. Most ideas die in stage one. The survivors earn a spot on the ledger — and keep it only while the receipts hold.
Current CORE window
Live route-simulation evidence for subscriber-shipped CORE tiers, loaded from /api/scanner/tier-performance. Bars below 1.0 stay visible; thin samples stay flat. Forward receipts outrank this chart.
$1,000 through the ledger — live
Every resolved CORE call, compounded in the order it closed. Wins, losses, nothing skipped. Pick the window; the pre-launch backtest keeps its own tab, caveats and all.
The Skeptic’s Console
$1,000 through the last … resolved CORE receipts · trailing 336h
Resolved receipts only, in the order they closed. 10% of equity per receipt, exit costs already in each printed return. Not advice — audit any row on /verify.
How candidates earn live delivery
Discovery
Mine candidate signals; reconstruct outcomes path-aware from history.
Shadow soak
Run live but invisible for ≥12 weeks, ≥20 entries, ≥10 resolved exits.
Latency stress
Re-test under realistic execution lag — idealized edges that collapse are cut.
Live ledger
Accrue real forward-traded outcomes (no reconstruction).
Graduation
Promote only after clearing predeclared profit-factor + sample gates.
Why we test under real-world latency
An exit policy that looks great at zero latency can fall apart once a real alert-to-fill delay is applied. We ship the one that holds up, not the one with the prettiest backtest.
time_up is the live policy (accent). Idealized trailing policies look good at zero latency but collapse under real alert-to-fill delay. Reconstructed from the parity backtester.
Live validation posture
What still needs evidence before promotion.
The research lane keeps the same live route telemetry visible while marking where lab evidence is preliminary, thin, or paused for sample risk.
Telemetry is still loading.
Model and alert diagnostics
Model tuning diagnostics
Public view of ML edge evidence and threshold-risk posture from live bucket telemetry.
Loading model telemetry...
In the lab right now
HTF Supertrend
soakingHigher-timeframe (weekly) trend-rider. Reconstructed research estimate ~PF 2.0–2.5 (corrected down from an inflated 4.4) — NOT a live track record, and bear-market behaviour is untested. Live-shadow soaking now.
Exit policy · time_up
latency-robustRetains 87% of profit factor under a 30s execution lag, versus 35–42% for trailing-stop policies. Shipped live behind an instant env kill-switch.
HTF-trend overlay
tested · no edgeTested whether a trend filter lifts the live tiers. It did not survive a cluster bootstrap (confidence interval spanned zero). Not shipped — a deliberate negative result.
The honesty contract
- ›We don’t market returns we can’t prove on a live ledger.
- ›Reconstructed and shadow numbers are labeled as such — never as a track record.
- ›Negative results ship too: an idea that fails validation is a finding, not a failure.
- ›Small samples make us more cautious, not more excited.
Verify, then decide.
The lab page explains how ideas graduate. Verify the public proof first, then connect wallet to continue in Telegram.
Need route context first? Verify the live ledger.