How we validate a signal before it ships.
SENTINEL is a public crypto-perp research desk. Most ideas don’t survive contact with the data — and we show that work. This page is the validation pipeline, the live receipts, and what’s currently soaking.
Live figures load on each visit from the same endpoint our admin dashboard uses. Everything labeled “research” or “reconstructed” is exactly that — not a live track record.
Nothing reaches a subscriber until it clears this
Discovery
Mine candidate signals; reconstruct outcomes path-aware from history.
Shadow soak
Run live but invisible for ≥12 weeks, ≥20 entries, ≥10 resolved exits.
Latency stress
Re-test under realistic execution lag — idealized edges that collapse are cut.
Live ledger
Accrue real forward-traded outcomes (no reconstruction).
Graduation
Promote only after clearing predeclared profit-factor + sample gates.
Why we test under real-world latency
An exit policy that looks great at zero latency can fall apart once a real alert-to-fill delay is applied. We ship the one that holds up, not the one with the prettiest backtest.
time_up is the live policy (accent). Idealized trailing policies look good at zero latency but collapse under real alert-to-fill delay. Reconstructed from the parity backtester.
Current CORE window
Profit factor for the live subscriber-shipped CORE tiers, loaded from the parity endpoint. Bars below 1.0 stay visible (muted); thin samples (n<10) render flat with a label. We never hide a weak window.
In the lab right now
HTF Supertrend
soakingHigher-timeframe (weekly) trend-rider. Reconstructed research estimate ~PF 2.0–2.5 (corrected down from an inflated 4.4) — NOT a live track record, and bear-market behaviour is untested. Live-shadow soaking now.
Exit policy · time_up
latency-robustRetains 87% of profit factor under a 30s execution lag, versus 35–42% for trailing-stop policies. Shipped live behind an instant env kill-switch.
HTF-trend overlay
tested · no edgeTested whether a trend filter lifts the live tiers. It did not survive a cluster bootstrap (confidence interval spanned zero). Not shipped — a deliberate negative result.
The honesty contract
- ›We don’t market returns we can’t prove on a live ledger.
- ›Reconstructed and shadow numbers are labeled as such — never as a track record.
- ›Negative results ship too: an idea that fails validation is a finding, not a failure.
- ›Small samples make us more cautious, not more excited.
CORE is the public, transparent-receipts surface. The Research Lab adds the rare, high-conviction super tier and experimental previews for members who want the frontier.
Access the research desk